{"product_id":"shocks-crises-and-false-alarms-how-to-assess-true-macroeconomic-risk-9781647825409","title":"Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAn essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe shocks and crises of recent years--pandemic, recession, inflation, war--have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral--or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHow can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions?\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this perspective-shifting book, BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking, they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks, historical context, and structural narratives--what they call \"economic eclecticism\"--the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, the financial system, and the geopolitical arena.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMoreover, the authors' more nuanced approach reveals that the all-too-common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often false alarms themselves, while the fundamental strengths of our current \"era of tightness\" become visible.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWith rational optimism rather than gloom, \u003ci\u003eShocks, Crises, and False Alarms\u003c\/i\u003e speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our times--and provides a compass for navigating the global economy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or flashy headlines, leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eBinding Type:\u003c\/b\u003e Hardcover\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublisher:\u003c\/b\u003e Harvard Business Review Press\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublished:\u003c\/b\u003e 07\/09\/2024\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN:\u003c\/b\u003e 9781647825409\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePages:\u003c\/b\u003e 320\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eWeight:\u003c\/b\u003e 1.20lbs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eSize:\u003c\/b\u003e 9.20h x 6.10w x 1.10d\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eReview Citations: \u003c\/strong\u003e\u003ci\u003ePublishers Weekly\u003c\/i\u003e 05\/27\/2024\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":44241234919605,"sku":"9781647825409","price":29.75,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0473\/0804\/6492\/files\/img_1377ec77-d219-4b7d-84a1-87fe28a34fbb.jpg?v=1717472201","url":"https:\/\/pastforward.org\/products\/shocks-crises-and-false-alarms-how-to-assess-true-macroeconomic-risk-9781647825409","provider":"Past Forward","version":"1.0","type":"link"}