{"product_id":"how-to-expect-the-unexpected-the-science-of-making-predictions-and-the-art-of-knowing-when-not-to-9781541604933","title":"How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions--And the Art of Knowing When Not to","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eA \"vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide\" (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right \u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In \u003ci\u003eHow to Expect the Unexpected, \u003c\/i\u003e mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions--and how we can use it to our advantage.    \u003cp\u003e From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.   \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eBinding Type:\u003c\/b\u003e Hardcover\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublisher:\u003c\/b\u003e Basic Books\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublished:\u003c\/b\u003e 10\/31\/2023\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN:\u003c\/b\u003e 9781541604933\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePages:\u003c\/b\u003e 448\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eReview Citations: \u003c\/strong\u003e\u003ci\u003ePublishers Weekly\u003c\/i\u003e 08\/28\/2023\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eKirkus Reviews\u003c\/i\u003e 09\/01\/2023\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"Kit Yates","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":43112091451573,"sku":"9781541604933","price":27.63,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0473\/0804\/6492\/files\/img_c4832f8c-35a6-42dc-8979-98b86c79a7dc.jpg?v=1693928490","url":"https:\/\/pastforward.org\/products\/how-to-expect-the-unexpected-the-science-of-making-predictions-and-the-art-of-knowing-when-not-to-9781541604933","provider":"Past Forward","version":"1.0","type":"link"}