{"product_id":"finance-and-economics-discussion-series-improving-real-time-estimates-of-the-output-gap-9781288704866","title":"Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Improving Real-Time Estimates of the Output Gap","description":"This paper investigates strategies for real-time estimation of the output gap. First, I examine estimates from univariate models with stochastic cycles. This corresponds to the use of model-based band-pass filters in real-time, and I find that the turning points in real-time and final output gap series match more closely for higher order models and that the revisions properties and real-time accuracy are more favorable. Second, I investigate the use of capacity utilization as an auxiliary indicator to improve on output gap estimates in real-time. I find that this bivariate approach leads to significant gains in the accuracy of real-time estimates and in the quality of revisions.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eBinding Type:\u003c\/b\u003e Paperback\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublisher:\u003c\/b\u003e Bibliogov\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublished:\u003c\/b\u003e 02\/05\/2013\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN:\u003c\/b\u003e 9781288704866\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePages:\u003c\/b\u003e 48\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eWeight:\u003c\/b\u003e 0.23lbs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eSize:\u003c\/b\u003e 9.69h x 7.44w x 0.10d","brand":"Thomas M. Trimbur","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":41839260434613,"sku":"9781288704866","price":13.39,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0473\/0804\/6492\/products\/img_a2446f71-abe8-402a-b086-4c85e2ad830e.jpg?v=1646729926","url":"https:\/\/pastforward.org\/products\/finance-and-economics-discussion-series-improving-real-time-estimates-of-the-output-gap-9781288704866","provider":"Past Forward","version":"1.0","type":"link"}